July 07, 2009

Sunspot cycle 24

Sunspot cycle 24 may be beginning.

I'm still rooting for a solar minimum, myself. The Experts are saying cycle 24 will be modest but normal. But The Experts didn't predict, and can't explain, why the sun has been so inactive so long up until now. They expected cycle 24 to start about a year ago.

So I'm not sure I give this prediction much credence. Only time will really tell.

Posted by: Steven Den Beste in Weird World at 08:18 PM | Comments (10) | Add Comment
Post contains 73 words, total size 1 kb.

1 I've been following the solar cycles for a year or so.  I find it pretty exciting.  The combination of the sun being so close and so key to our existence, and yet still largely a mystery, is an enchanting experience.  So many of the unanswered questions these days are very esoteric and remote.

Posted by: ngthagg at July 07, 2009 08:25 PM (AXxiE)

2 For the last year there hasn't been anything to follow. That's what's been so strange.

Posted by: Steven Den Beste at July 07, 2009 09:02 PM (+rSRq)

3 Last year at this time we were on sunspot number 999.  The latest one to crop up is number 1024.  That's an average of two per month, which is nothing for the sun.

I might believe these guys if they hadn't been saying "Oh look!  Cycle 24 is finally starting!" every time one of those spots cropped up.


Posted by: atomic_fungus at July 07, 2009 09:23 PM (M2zC/)

4 re: atomic_fungus

Well, for once this particular Sunspot is of right polarity, right position for Cycle 24, and actually last longer than a couple of hours. 

The previous so-call sunspot during the quiet period are either remnant Cycle 23 or spec that flamed out rather quickly. 

Posted by: BigFire at July 07, 2009 09:55 PM (JylMM)

5 One sunspot does not a cycle make. There were sunspots during the Maunder Minimum -- just not very damned many.

Posted by: Steven Den Beste at July 07, 2009 10:42 PM (+rSRq)

6

Probably more than anyone ever wanted to know about Cycle 24 here:

http://solarcycle24.com/

 

Posted by: norm1034 at July 08, 2009 06:52 AM (5/84L)

7 Several of the 25 sunspots over the past year were of the correct polarity to be Cycle 24 spots.  As Steven points out, "one sunspot does not a cycle make". 

My point was that I'm not going to believe "the astronomer who cried solar maximum" until there is one.

Posted by: atomic_fungus at July 08, 2009 07:43 AM (M2zC/)

8 Phil Plait has a post about the sunspot cycle and it being a year late in starting and how GONG has found a link between a subsurface gas "jetstream" has been linked to sunspot formation and how it was running a year behind schedule as well. The breakthrough he links to is here although I'm not sure they understand why the gasstream is moving slower than normal.

Posted by: MisterBixby at July 09, 2009 12:58 PM (FLCiY)

9 Wow, run-on sentence, much? Sorry about that!

Posted by: MisterBixby at July 09, 2009 12:59 PM (FLCiY)

10 The spot is gone again, and again, we have a nice spotless sun.

Posted by: BigFire at July 10, 2009 01:30 PM (9KNwi)

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