1 Another six months or so is about when I plan to start panicking, as well.  I've been following this off and on for the last couple of years, and the worst official (as opposed to Hollywood) Global Warming scenarios have nothing on the death and misery of a new Little Ice Age.

Why can't people study history... or at least figure out that there was a *reason* Greenland and Vinland were named what they were *when* they were... or why northern Europe switched from wine to grain alcohol, or any number of other symptoms?

2 Actually, in november there was quite a bit of activity (compared to the previous zero-months, that is), and in december there have also been a couple of sunspots and flares, so cycle 24 may be beginning at least. Let's hope so. If the sun hasn't flared up in a few months, we're in some serious trouble (and in a very cold century). Temperatures have already plummeted for two years straight...

I use this site to monitor sun activity, it's the best one I've found. Plus, the pictures are awesome.
http://solarcycle24.com/

3 A major cool down on top of a global economic depression. What next, a major meteor strike? Pakistan loses control of one or more of its nukes? My Netflix anime CDs get lost in the mail? My fansub discovers that that it's new series Kiss X Sis is really hentai and drops it?

4

What's funny is I remember back in the 70's, global cooling and a new ice age were predicted for the 21st century.  The warming hoopla didn't start until the 90's.

Back when you were naysaying my concern over it, I looked through the last couple centuries of records.  The closest parallel I saw to the current period was the 1930's.  Can you say "Dust Bowl?"

Things don't have to get Little Ice Age serious to be very ugly, especially given that we're already in a slump thats about to get really serious.  Give it a year or so, and even the Chinese aren't going to want to buy our T-bills.  What's going to happen to the economy when the government can't borrow money to prop it up?

So.... anyone else read Ringo's The Last Centurion lately?  Little Ice Age and human-transmissible avian flu hit with a liberal Democrat president in office...nah, couldn't happen.

 

5

"Give it a year or so, and even the Chinese aren't going to want to buy our T-bills."

Not that they'll be in a much better position.  They're already shuttering factories like crazy.  Without us buying their lead and melamine, a good part of their economy goes in the tank.

 

6 China, 30 percent of the worlds population and 9 percent of the arable land. So much manufacturing has shut down that they have jobless people heading in the "wrong" direction, back to the country side. They aren't real happy about the low price of oil either. One official said that oil drop is due in large part because we are buying less. Also we've had to reduce and halt investment in the higher cost oil sources, off shore for instance. The government is making noises about deflating the money to try to sell more exports. So even at 0.5% there is money flowing into US bonds from overseas.

7

The money's flowing for now, but as I was pointing out to a friend of mine, the expected revesal of the negative press that will result from the Ascension on 1/20/09 will not spark a consumer-driven end to the oncoming recession.  The losses are too real, and the problems are too fundamental. 

For certain values of "real" that is. The underlying problem is that land prices got artificially inflated due to lax government-forced lending policies. Then the artificially inflated land values were used as leverage to float "asset-backed investments." Borrow money based on paper value of the assets, and use it to buy more assets, thus raising the values further.... Like all bubbles, it looked like a perpetual money machine, but it was really just a house of cards waiting to collapse, and we were warned as far back as 2005 that it was coming.

There are several definitions of "money" in the economic sense, and when your $800 million in assets is suddenly worth only $8 million, one hell of a lot of money has just been sucked out of the economy. This can cause deflation, which is supposed to be bad for some reason I don't claim to understand. So the government is pumping in more and more BORROWED money, even if Bush has to break the constitution to do it.  Question: What happens when the government can't sell any more T-bills because the investors realize the government can't even pay the interest back due to the deflating currency?   Oops, I think I just figured out one bad thing about deflation.

Now toss a Little Ice Age on top of that.

World War V is gonna be messy.  My prediction: 2011 at the outside, with serious precursor conflicts in 2010.  Probable flash points: Pakistan vs. India or China v. Taiwan.  Depends on how secure the ChiCom oligarchs are feeling.

8 Deflation has significant practical problems, mostly psychological. The biggest problem is that it's a lot harder to adjust wages for deflation than inflation. If inflation is up a bit, you can increase your wage levels to match it and keep paying your workers the same; the wise ones will conclude "oh, it's just a cost-of-living adjustment", but a lot of them will say "oh, hey, boss man is generous with the raises this year." Or you can not raise your wages and pocket the difference as profit, heh.

But deflation is harder to mask that way. If you tell your workers they're getting a pay cut, they're going to be unhappy with you even if deflation means they're at the same level as before. (Of course, this is all complicated by your workers getting more experienced at their jobs and expecting pay increases due to that as well...)

It also makes growth difficult - even if you're doing the same amount of business, all your numbers are x% smaller. Again, while the clear-headed can mentally adjust for deflation there, a not-insignificant number will conclude "oh, your sales shrank" and dump your stock.

Personally, I figure the Taiwan issue could be solved pretty easily by tossing them a few nukes under the table. ;p It's not like China, the kings of covert nuclear proliferation, can complain...

9 I don't really want to talk about economics or world politics. Thread closed.