November 13, 2015
There have been multiple attacks in Paris. Two suicide bombers, and one man with a fully automatic rifle attacking a bar, are the early reports. It's possible it isn't over, and there may be other attacks.
Usually when this happens, even before the smoke clears, some high-ranked government official will say, "We don't know what happened but we're absolutely certain it has nothing to do with Terrorism or Islam. Absolutely no Islamic Terrorism here, folks. Don't worry! Be Happy!"
I wonder if that will happen this time. When suicide bombers are involved it's kind of hard to avoid the truth, but even when it's blatantly obvious what's going on those kinds of announcements still happen.
UPDATE: Fog of war and all that, but most reports now say at least 18 dead. The attackers (the ones who were shooting) were using AK-47's, the freedom fighter's weapon of choice.
UPDATE: At least one case of hostages.
UPDATE: Ding Ding Ding we have a winner!
Global security firm Flashpoint Intelligence said Friday that it had not seen any terror-related claims in the immediate aftermath of the string of violence. "We're definitely not seeing any claim from any group, we're not seeing any claim of response from any individuals," and there is very little chatter online, Laith Alkhouri, director of research and analysis for Middle East and North Africa for Flashpoint, said on MSNBC.
UPDATE: Some reports now are 60 dead, but we won't really know for sure until all the combat has ended and there's time to count the corpses.
However, this is the most impressive attack since Mumbai. Reportedly one of them has been captured. How much you want to be the French Police are not worrying about his civil rights or any "emerging international law" regarding forceful questioning? (Those rules only apply to the US, of course.)
I'm sure he's already having a very entertaining time.
UPDATE: It's now reported that the theater wasn't really a "hostage" situation. Rather it was "capturing lots of targets". The attackers murdered a lot of the poeple they captured and if the police hadn't stormed the place they probably would have killed them all. Some reports now are that upwards of a hundred of them were executed.
No, not surprised at a terrorist attack of massive proportions. I just thought they'd hold off for a while longer, take advantage of the mindlessly open borders to move more men in. I mean, either this is going to end the 'refugee' invasion, or Europe has already fallen.
Posted by: Brett Bellmore at November 13, 2015 04:38 PM (l55xw)
I think it's all over but the shouting for the "open border" concept. The French President ordered all of France's borders closed, and Hungary is already lining its border with razor wire.
Deep down I think everyone knew it couldn't last forever. The big question now is what they're going to do with the ones who are already there.
Posted by: Steven Den Beste at November 13, 2015 04:42 PM (+rSRq)
I suspect their reaction is going to be quite undiplomatic and be carried by much lead. If someone has even the vaguest ties to terrorism in France right now, they're going to have very large, very gaudy targets on their backs.
Everybody that isn't "pureblooded French" is going to be under a microscope. There will be rioting, and French Public Safety as a whole will be in zero mood for them.
And nobody will be surprised in the least when they receive international condemnation for their heavy-handedness, and fire back with "this is an internal matter, butt out" (but in more diplomatic terms). I'm not even sure I'd be surprised if this leads to a war.
Posted by: Wonderduck at November 13, 2015 05:30 PM (a12rG)
The intermingled populations will make this more closely resemble a civil war than anything else, but one across most of Europe. Other international players will take advantage of the chaos and pursue their own objectives.
I really really hope to be proven wrong.
Posted by: Douglas Oosting at November 13, 2015 08:08 PM (zpfLq)
They would not have given a damn, too, and the rest of the world would have stayed quiet.
Posted by: cxt217 at November 13, 2015 08:45 PM (Xdq+D)
The president of France has just invoked martial law. That's based on a bill passed in 1958 and it effectively makes him a total dictator, with pretty much unlimited powers.
The President of the Republic may declare a state of emergency and gather much power to themselves, by simply declaring such to the to Council of Ministers, but the Parliament can revoke it after 12 days.
During that time, he can regulate or forbid travel or gathering in any area of France, he my close any building or business, he may search any house at any time without judicial oversight, and he has the absolute power of censorship. It also allows the military the power to act in place of civil authorities.
This is all well established in the 1958 Constitution. The law also summons Parliament to meet. The one power that is restricted from the President is that they may not dissolve the National Assembly (thus forcing elections) while the state of emergency exists.
So, yeah. François Hollande is basically now the dictator of France and will remain so as long as the Parliament agrees after 12 days and the Constitutional Council agrees after 60 days (though they can be asked to rule on that after 30 days, they get the power to rule without referral on it after 60 days.)
He is now a tyrant, until one of those other bodies decide he no longer should be.
What will he do with that power? It's hard to believe he'd invoke something so radical (it's only been used once before) without intending to use those powers.
My guess? We are about to see a huge military invasion of the banlieues.
Posted by: Steven Den Beste at November 13, 2015 09:33 PM (+rSRq)
Also: "Absolute power of censorship", meet "Twitter and Facebook".
If there really is a military crackdown on the banlieues, the government is going to try to keep it quiet and they won't succeed.
Posted by: Steven Den Beste at November 13, 2015 09:36 PM (+rSRq)
Sounds about right for another legacy of Charles De Gaulle.
I do have to wonder if Hollande has it in him to order an invasion of banlieues (Not to mention the refugee camps, like the infamous one at Calais.). Whatever you could say about the previous Socialist President of France, Mitterand would have gone ahead with, to borrow a phrase, 'burning out the hornets.'
Posted by: cxt217 at November 13, 2015 09:40 PM (Xdq+D)
Posted by: BigFire at November 14, 2015 07:04 AM (pNmmq)
Interesting. It was originally reported that the French captured one of the attackers at that theater but now they're saying that they killed him. (The other two killed themselves by detonating explosive vests.)
If I were suspicious I'd wonder if they really did capture him but don't want to admit it, so that they don't have to account to anyone on how he's being treated.
Posted by: Steven Den Beste at November 14, 2015 03:48 PM (+rSRq)
Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at November 14, 2015 07:27 PM (XOPVE)
Posted by: Steven Den Beste at November 14, 2015 10:09 PM (+rSRq)
Enclose all spoilers in spoiler tags:
[spoiler]your spoiler here[/spoiler]
Spoilers which are not properly tagged will be ruthlessly deleted on sight.
Also, I hate unsolicited suggestions and advice. (Even when you think you're being funny.)
At Chizumatic, we take pride in being incomplete, incorrect, inconsistent, and unfair. We do all of them deliberately.
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