September 20, 2014
Starting about the first of the year, someone began to actively manipulate the Dollar/Yen exchange rate to keep it stable at about 102 yen to the dollar. I presume it was the Bank of Japan, but I don't actually know for sure.
I keep an exchange rate gadget on one of my computer desktops, showing USD vs JPY, just because I'm curious, and it's been preposterously stable for quite a long time. Exchange rates don't do that unless someone is fiddling with them.
Starting about a month ago they stopped doing it, and now the exchange rate is 109 yen to the dollar and trending up rapidly. Over the last ten years it's been as high as 128 and as low as 76. When the Yen was very strong, it caused all the disadvantages for Japan that we all know and love: making their exports expensive, presumably reducing their sales.
Which, I suspect, is why (I presume) the Bank of Japan began buying dollars with yen, to inflate the yen relative to the dollar. I wonder why they stopped?
Posted by: Steven Den Beste in Weird World at
08:03 PM
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Note that Asonomics is the usual statist recipy: inflate government debts away, pile up taxes sky-high, use the proceeds to buy votes and create a massive dependent class. Even the American inflation cannot keep up with the debasement of Yen by Aso's government.
Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at September 20, 2014 08:53 PM (RqRa5)
Posted by: Steven Den Beste at September 20, 2014 09:30 PM (+rSRq)
Or, to put it another way, anybody who buys groceries knows that American inflation is a lot higher than the government admits. For Japan to keep their currency at parity with the US dollar would be to replicate American inflation. Maybe they've decided they don't want to go there.
Posted by: Brett Bellmore at September 21, 2014 05:30 AM (F15D0)
Actually, if the yen is rising relative to the dollar, it means Japanese inflation is higher than ours.
Which, admittedly, may be why they stopped.
Posted by: Steven Den Beste at September 21, 2014 11:00 AM (+rSRq)
Posted by: J Greely at September 21, 2014 01:28 PM (1CisS)
While in a "normal" market, I'd agree with your analysis, but currencies aren't a normal market. As a result, it's actually the reverse. The exchange range hit the range between 103 & 101.20 and stayed there for 4 months because the Big Players were *out* of the market.
Currency markets are controlled by the Central Banks of their respective countries. However, pretty much the USA, UK & Eurozone are the only Central Banks with complete control over their exchange rates. The BoJ can be pushed around by the big banks & sovereign funds.
What has really been going on all year is a rolling set of Forex Collusion investigations at the major exchanges. This put a lot of the major players on the sidelines, until they worked out how to operate within the new rules, plus a lot of what is going on within the major economies hadn't been sorted out.
However, the current run has a lot to do with the rapid devaluation of the Euro. The value of the USD is heavily related to that exchange rate, and as the Euro dropped 600 basis points, it allowed them to move the Yen higher. There's also functional macro-economic reasons for exchange rates to move during certain parts of the year. This year's Fall move just happened to be bigger (mostly as the majority of the year had been much tighter).
We're approaching an area for a pull back, as they've got orders to pull in & stack up before trying to move higher. And the Fed's QE3 ends very soon, which should cause an equities sell-off.
So, now's a good time to buy Japanese goods, if you want some.
Posted by: sqa at September 22, 2014 02:28 AM (DlaDG)
However, all of that Debt is held by Japanese Banks & the Bank of Japan. So, it's both eating the country apart & it doesn't truly exist. How's that for a problem that can't be unwound?
Since Japan is prelude to what Europe is going to go through, and the USA will be looking at after the equities explode again, it's because of a "debt hangover" in the real estate markets. Politicians can't allow the time for the market to re-balance itself. So they add more debt to solve a debt problem. No structural reform will change the calculus. There isn't any way to solve the problem *now*. (200% of GDP ago, there was)
Posted by: sqa at September 22, 2014 02:51 AM (DlaDG)
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Spoilers which are not properly tagged will be ruthlessly deleted on sight.
Also, I hate unsolicited suggestions and advice. (Even when you think you're being funny.)
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